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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 38

New York Jets 6 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(3:47) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 17-G.Wilson [10-U.Nwosu].

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.33 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model