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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 45

Seattle Seahawks 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to NYJ 10, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 13 for 3 yards (83-D.Young).

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model