4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 4-M.Dickson punts 43 yards to NYJ 29, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model