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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 83

New York Jets 6 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 7-B.Mann punts 59 yards to SEA 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 32 for 8 yards (34-J.Hardee; 42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 83, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 41, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model