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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.62 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model