Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 64

New York Jets 6 – Seattle Seahawks 23

(4:01) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short left to 25-T.Johnson [77-Q.Jefferson].

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.16 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.84 EP