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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

NYG
44.0%
MIN
56.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • MIN defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 23
–
MIN 25
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYG

Adoree' Jackson CB Out Knee
Shane Lemieux G Out Toe

MIN

Garrett Bradbury C Out Back
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Hip
Cameron Dantzler CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 24
–
MIN 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:23 TD MIN (3:23) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYG-99-L.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. NYG 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 09:45 FG MIN (9:45) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NYG 0 – MIN 10
  • Q2 04:30 TD NYG (4:30) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 18-I.Hodgins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – MIN 10
  • Q3 11:22 FG NYG (11:22) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 10 – MIN 10
  • Q3 04:35 FG NYG (4:35) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 13 – MIN 10
  • Q4 14:18 TD MIN (14:18) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – MIN 16
  • Q4 06:29 FG NYG (6:29) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 16 – MIN 17
  • Q4 03:06 TD MIN (3:06) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 18-J.Jefferson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Ward]. NYG 16 – MIN 23
  • Q4 02:07 TD NYG (2:07) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 22 – MIN 24
  • Q4 00:04 FG MIN (:04) 1-G.Joseph 61 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright. NYG 24 – MIN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (12:56) 14-R.Wright punts 28 yards to NYG 24, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 30%

    (11:03) 6-J.Gillan punts 40 yards to MIN 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:00) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-R.James pushed ob at NYG 33 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 61 yards to MIN 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 16 for 7 yards (84-M.Johnson).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 90%

    (9:45) 1-G.Joseph 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:53) 14-R.Wright punts 57 yards to NYG 9, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%

    (:43) 6-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to MIN 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 86%

    (11:22) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:22) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 87%

    (4:35) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 50%

    (9:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson (30-D.Holmes).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 67%

    (6:29) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:37) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to NYG 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-R.James to NYG 25 for 4 yards (29-K.Boyd, 91-P.Jones).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:10) 6-J.Gillan punt is BLOCKED by 44-J.Metellus, Center-58-C.Kreiter, recovered by NYG-20-J.Love at NYG 23. 20-J.Love to NYG 29 for 6 yards (45-T.Dye).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 85%

    (2:07) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.