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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(9:01) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson (30-D.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.83 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model