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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 37

New York Giants 13 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 9-G.Gano 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.76 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model