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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 70

New York Giants 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 61 yards to MIN 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 16 for 7 yards (84-M.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.80 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model