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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 56

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-42-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.85 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model