Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
New York Giants
4th & 2 at the 27
New York Giants 16 – Minnesota Vikings 24
What Actually Happened
(2:07) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.22 EP
What Happened
-
57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.10 EP
- 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK
+1.30 EP
Model's Pick
- 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 15% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
