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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 25

New York Giants 10 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model