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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 14-R.Wright punts 48 yards to NYG 29, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-R.James pushed ob at NYG 33 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model