Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 17 – New York Giants 16

(4:37) 14-R.Wright punts 52 yards to NYG 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 80-R.James to NYG 25 for 4 yards (29-K.Boyd, 91-P.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.30 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model