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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 44

New York Giants 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(:43) 6-J.Gillan punts 28 yards to MIN 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.22 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model