4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NO Away

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.0 O/U 32.0

Win Probability

NO
48.0%
CLE
52.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Deshaun Watson (CLE): -0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 27 mph
  • NO offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NO 19
–
CLE 20
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NO

Jarvis Landry WR Out Ankle
Chris Olave WR Out Hamstring
Dwayne Washington RB Out Illness
Pete Werner LB Out Hamstring
Andrus Peat G Questionable Illness
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Abdomen
Marcus Maye S Questionable Shoulder
Adam Trautman TE Questionable Ankle
P.J. Williams CB Questionable Knee

CLE

Jadeveon Clowney DE Out Concussion
John Johnson S Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 17
–
CLE 10

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD CLE (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson left end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – CLE 6
  • Q2 04:11 FG CLE (4:11) 3-C.York 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. NO 0 – CLE 10
  • Q2 00:03 FG NO (:03) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 3 – CLE 10
  • Q3 09:45 TD NO (9:45) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – CLE 10
  • Q3 01:01 TD NO (1:01) (No Huddle) 41-A.Kamara left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – CLE 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:35) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to NO 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-D.Bell.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:03) 4-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to CLE 48, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to NO 49 for 3 yards (58-T.Summers).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 30%

    (10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 33%

    (5:19) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to CLE 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to CLE 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 89-R.Shaheed to CLE 45 for no gain (51-J.Kunaszyk).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:01) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to CLE 28, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 60%

    (5:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper to NO 12 for 21 yards (30-J.Evans).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (4:11) 3-C.York 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (:03) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 16%

    (6:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to NO 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (4:25) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to CLE 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 43 for 12 yards (50-A.Dowell; 25-D.Sorensen).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 33%

    (13:35) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 32 yards to NO 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-37-D.Bell.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 16%

    (9:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to CLE 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-42-C.Hansen.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (7:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%

    (5:22) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.35 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at NO 22 for -7 yards (96-C.Granderson).