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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 4-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to CLE 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-42-C.Hansen.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.98 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model