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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 4-B.Gillikin punts 39 yards to CLE 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -1.28 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model