4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 38

New Orleans Saints 17 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 38, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP