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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 10 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to NO 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.89 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.91 EP
  • 16% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 84% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP