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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(5:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 2-A.Cooper to NO 12 for 21 yards (30-J.Evans).

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 33, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.00 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model