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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 3-C.York 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.20 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 12, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model