4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 83

New Orleans Saints 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to CLE 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 43 for 12 yards (50-A.Dowell; 25-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.59 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP