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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to CLE 28, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model