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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 61

Cleveland Browns 10 – New Orleans Saints 17

What Actually Happened

(7:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.89 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model