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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Saturday 2022-12-24 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 🥶 Cold Spread 6.5 O/U 35.0

Win Probability

ATL
38.6%
BAL
61.4%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.144 vs Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.194 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ATL 19
–
BAL 23
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

ATL

Chuma Edoga T Out Knee

BAL

Calais Campbell DE Out Knee
Lamar Jackson QB Out Knee
Marcus Peters CB Out Calf
Tyler Huntley QB Questionable right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 9
–
BAL 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:05 FG BAL (8:05) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. ATL 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 12:46 FG BAL (12:46) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. ATL 0 – BAL 6
  • Q2 02:27 TD BAL (2:27) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 10-D.Robinson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. ATL 0 – BAL 12
  • Q2 00:05 FG ATL (:05) 7-Y.Koo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – BAL 14
  • Q3 07:06 FG ATL (7:06) 7-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 6 – BAL 14
  • Q4 14:13 FG BAL (14:13) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. ATL 6 – BAL 17
  • Q4 02:07 FG ATL (2:07) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 9 – BAL 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 21%

    (13:10) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to BAL 41, Center-48-L.McCullough. 3-J.Proche to 50 for 9 yards (44-T.Andersen).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (8:05) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:39) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to BAL 43, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 3-J.Proche.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 7 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (3:48) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-A.Ogundeji), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout, recovered by BAL-86-N.Boyle at ATL 40.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 42%

    (:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Byrd.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (12:46) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 37%

    (9:22) 4-D.Ridder pass deep middle to 5-D.London to BAL 26 for 20 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-6-P.Queen at BAL 25. 6-P.Queen to BAL 30 for 5 yards (25-T.Allgeier).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 27%

    (12:19) (No Huddle) 25-T.Allgeier right end to BAL 46 for 4 yards (4-J.Pierre-Paul).

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (7:06) 7-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (3:23) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (1:54) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to BAL 32, Center-48-L.McCullough. 3-J.Proche to BAL 37 for 5 yards (48-L.McCullough; 53-N.Kwiatkoski). PENALTY on ATL-12-K.Hodge, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 37.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (14:13) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (6:49) 25-T.Allgeier left end to BAL 2 for -1 yards (94-I.Mack). Penalty on ATL-46-P.Hesse, Illegal Motion, declined.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 9 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:06) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to ATL 47, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 92%

    (2:07) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.