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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(2:07) 7-Y.Koo 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.28 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model