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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 11-J.Stout punts 38 yards to ATL 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.17 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model