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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to BAL 41, Center-48-L.McCullough. 3-J.Proche to 50 for 9 yards (44-T.Andersen).

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.41 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP