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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 46

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 4-D.Ridder pass deep middle to 5-D.London to BAL 26 for 20 yards (44-M.Humphrey). FUMBLES (44-M.Humphrey), RECOVERED by BAL-6-P.Queen at BAL 25. 6-P.Queen to BAL 30 for 5 yards (25-T.Allgeier).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model