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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 9

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 9-J.Tucker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.91 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 9, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP