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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 3

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 9-J.Tucker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +3.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 3, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP