Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 83

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Atlanta Falcons 6

(5:06) 11-J.Stout punts 36 yards to ATL 47, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.85 EP
60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 83, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model