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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 5 at the 44
Atlanta Falcons 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3
What Actually Happened
(:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Byrd.
The Three Options
GO
-0.11 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.18 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK
-1.05 EP
- 42% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
- 58% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
