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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(12:19) (No Huddle) 25-T.Allgeier right end to BAL 46 for 4 yards (4-J.Pierre-Paul).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model