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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
@
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Denver Broncos

HC Nathaniel Hackett
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.5 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

ARI
45.5%
DEN
54.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ARI: Brett Rypien (DEN) -0.272 vs Colt McCoy (ARI) -0.038 EPA/dropback (DEN starting Brett Rypien in place of Russell Wilson; ARI starting Colt McCoy in place of Kyler Murray)
  • DEN offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Brett Rypien (DEN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

ARI 18
–
DEN 20
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ARI

Zach Allen DE Out Hand
Byron Murphy CB Out Back
Antonio Hamilton CB Questionable Back
Marquise Brown WR Questionable Illness
Rashaad Coward T Questionable Chest
Charles Washington S Questionable Chest
Marco Wilson CB Questionable Neck

DEN

Kendall Hinton WR Out Hamstring
Courtland Sutton WR Out Hamstring
Russell Wilson QB Out Concussion
Dre'Mont Jones DE Questionable Hip
D.J. Jones DT Questionable Shoulder
Dakota Allen LB Questionable Hamstring
Andrew Beck TE Questionable Hamstring
Dalton Risner G Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 15
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:31 FG DEN (10:31) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. ARI 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 10:39 FG ARI (10:39) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – DEN 3
  • Q2 00:03 FG ARI (:03) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 6 – DEN 3
  • Q3 09:00 FG ARI (9:00) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 9 – DEN 3
  • Q3 06:02 TD DEN (6:02) 37-M.Mack right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – DEN 9
  • Q4 11:05 TD DEN (11:05) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – DEN 16
  • Q4 09:33 TD DEN (9:33) 4-B.Rypien pass short right to 87-E.Tomlinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – DEN 23
  • Q4 06:04 TD ARI (6:04) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 15 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 71%

    (10:31) 8-B.McManus 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:09) 14-A.Lee punts 48 yards to DEN 23, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-M.Washington to DEN 31 for 8 yards (28-C.Washington).

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 34%

    (4:38) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to ARI 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (:36) 8-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 84%

    (10:39) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:57) 17-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to ARI 45, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 27%

    (6:37) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to DEN 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:20) 17-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 39 for 8 yards (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 27%

    (3:59) 14-A.Lee punts 44 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 8. PENALTY on DEN-27-D.Mathis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 8.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:51) 17-C.Waitman punts 52 yards to ARI 16, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 19 for 3 yards (49-A.Singleton; 53-J.Cooper).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:22) 14-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DEN 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-57-K.Grugier-Hill.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 64%

    (9:00) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (4:46) 14-A.Lee punts 50 yards to DEN 26, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-M.Washington to DEN 34 for 8 yards (28-C.Washington). ARI-28-C.Washington was injured during the play.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:07) 14-A.Lee punts 59 yards to DEN 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-M.Washington to DEN 44 for 7 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 38%

    (2:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to ARI 3, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-59-D.Allen.