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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 49

Denver Broncos 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to ARI 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.83 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model