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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 80

Denver Broncos 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 17-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to ARI 45, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model