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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 5-M.Prater 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model