4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 52

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 14-A.Lee punts 44 yards to DEN 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 8. PENALTY on DEN-27-D.Mathis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 8.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.59 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP