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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 47

Denver Broncos 24 – Arizona Cardinals 15

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to ARI 3, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-59-D.Allen.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 47, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model