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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 20

Denver Broncos 3 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(:36) 8-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.19 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 20, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model