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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 27

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 5-M.Prater 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model