Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 87

Denver Broncos 3 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(5:20) 17-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 39 for 8 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.80 EP
60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 87, worth -4.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model