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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 96

Arizona Cardinals 9 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 14-A.Lee punts 59 yards to DEN 37, Center-46-A.Brewer. 12-M.Washington to DEN 44 for 7 yards (52-V.Dimukeje).

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.04 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 96, worth -5.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model