Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DEN offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- CAR offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- Sam Darnold (CAR): -0.174 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Sam Darnold in place of Phillip Walker)
- DEN defense: -0.122 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- CAR defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
DEN
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 00:36 TD CAR (:36) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – CAR 6
- Q2 10:14 FG DEN (10:14) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 3 – CAR 7
- Q2 04:46 FG CAR (4:46) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. DEN 3 – CAR 10
- Q3 07:26 TD CAR (7:26) (Shotgun) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold up the middle to DEN 2 for no gain (47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (47-J.Jewell), and recovers at DEN 1. 14-S.Darnold for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – CAR 16
- Q4 13:36 FG CAR (13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PENALTY on DEN-98-M.Purcell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 3 – CAR 20
- Q4 09:04 FG CAR (9:04) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. DEN 3 – CAR 23
- Q4 03:24 TD DEN (3:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – CAR 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 56Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:49) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to DEN 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-20-R.Blackshear.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(11:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to CAR 38, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to DEN 41 for 21 yards (49-A.Singleton; 6-P.Locke).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 18 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 25%
(9:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to DEN 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
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Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 79Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EPp(convert) 72%
(7:42) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to CAR 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 29 for 8 yards (6-P.Locke, 46-J.Bobenmoyer).
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Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 62Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68%
(5:31) (Punt formation) 34-S.Chandler up the middle to CAR 40 for 2 yards (53-J.Cooper; 54-J.Martin).
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Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(12:56) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at CAR 27.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%
(10:14) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%
(4:46) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 58%
(1:55) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to DEN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.
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Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DEN 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 60%
(13:42) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 28 for 9 yards (20-D.Phillips; 6-P.Locke).
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Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(4:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 15 for 6 yards (15-J.Virgil, 40-J.Strnad).
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Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 77Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 59%
(2:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to DEN 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-M.Washington to DEN 38 for 20 yards (34-S.Chandler). PENALTY on DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell, Face Mask, 9 yards, enforced at DEN 18. Penalty on DEN-36-D.Ozigbo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EPp(convert) 72%
(1:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-15-J.Virgil.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PENALTY on DEN-98-M.Purcell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%
(9:04) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 57 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EPp(convert) 32%
(2:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 9-K.Hinton.
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Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 23 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EPp(convert) 63% p(FG) 86%
(1:09) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DEN 20 for 3 yards (53-J.Cooper).