4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
DEN Away

Denver Broncos

3-8 HC Nathaniel Hackett
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

4-8 HC Steve Wilks
Sunday 2022-11-27 · 13:00 ET Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

DEN
51.6%
CAR
48.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Sam Darnold (CAR): -0.174 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CAR starting Sam Darnold in place of Phillip Walker)
  • Wind 15 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 20 13–27
–
CAR 19 12–26
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 39

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

DEN

K.J. Hamler WR Out Hamstring
Jonathan Harris DE Out Knee
Jerry Jeudy WR Out Ankle
K'Waun Williams CB Out Wrist
Andrew Beck TE Questionable Hamstring
Jake Martin DE Questionable Knee

CAR

Myles Hartsfield S Out Ankle
Matt Ioannidis DT Out Calf
Cory Littleton LB Out Ankle
Giovanni Ricci TE Doubtful Neck
Phillip Walker QB Doubtful Ankle
Stephen Sullivan TE Questionable Illness
Ian Thomas TE Questionable Illness
Terrace Marshall WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 10
–
CAR 23

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:36 TD CAR (:36) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – CAR 6
  • Q2 10:14 FG DEN (10:14) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman. DEN 3 – CAR 7
  • Q2 04:46 FG CAR (4:46) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. DEN 3 – CAR 10
  • Q3 07:26 TD CAR (7:26) (Shotgun) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 14-S.Darnold up the middle to DEN 2 for no gain (47-J.Jewell). FUMBLES (47-J.Jewell), and recovers at DEN 1. 14-S.Darnold for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 3 – CAR 16
  • Q4 13:36 FG CAR (13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PENALTY on DEN-98-M.Purcell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DEN 3 – CAR 20
  • Q4 09:04 FG CAR (9:04) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. DEN 3 – CAR 23
  • Q4 03:24 TD DEN (3:24) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 9 – CAR 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:49) 10-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to DEN 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-20-R.Blackshear.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:19) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to CAR 38, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to DEN 41 for 21 yards (49-A.Singleton; 6-P.Locke).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 18 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 25%

    (9:40) 10-J.Hekker punts 37 yards to DEN 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:42) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to CAR 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 29 for 8 yards (6-P.Locke, 46-J.Bobenmoyer).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:31) (Punt formation) 34-S.Chandler up the middle to CAR 40 for 2 yards (53-J.Cooper; 54-J.Martin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:56) 17-C.Waitman punts 37 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell at CAR 27.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (10:14) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 85%

    (4:46) 4-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:55) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to DEN 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to CAR 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DEN 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:42) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 28 for 9 yards (20-D.Phillips; 6-P.Locke).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 16 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:23) 17-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to CAR 9, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 20-R.Blackshear to CAR 15 for 6 yards (15-J.Virgil, 40-J.Strnad).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (2:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to DEN 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-M.Washington to DEN 38 for 20 yards (34-S.Chandler). PENALTY on DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell, Face Mask, 9 yards, enforced at DEN 18. Penalty on DEN-36-D.Ozigbo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (1:01) 17-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to CAR 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-15-J.Virgil.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PENALTY on DEN-98-M.Purcell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 92%

    (9:04) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 57 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to 9-K.Hinton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 86%

    (1:09) 75-C.Erving reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to DEN 20 for 3 yards (53-J.Cooper).

    See the full breakdown →