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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 18

Carolina Panthers 20 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 4-E.Pineiro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model