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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 8

Carolina Panthers 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. PENALTY on DEN-98-M.Purcell, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model