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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to DEN 29, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.68 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 81, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 38, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model